Wednesday, November 13, 2013

A Bridge Too Far

            In the end, the starting pitching faded out, the injuries were too much to patchwork any further, and the New York Yankees had to taste the Boston Red Sox winning their third World Championship in the last nine years, compared to the Yanks lonely one.



            Boston put the Yankees out of their misery by taking six out of seven games in September, and the Yankees didn't help themselves either by losing a pivotal two out of three games up in Toronto when their playoff hopes were still hanging on by a shred. When it was clear this 2013 squad wasn't destined for the postseason, the narrative to hold onto as many YES ratings as possible was highlighting the last hurrahs for Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte. About the only September bright spot the Yankees had was the final game of the regular reason when Pettitte threw a complete game victory in Houston, close to his hometown.



            The Yanks had a stretch; with the trade for Soriano, the debut of A-Rod, and the return of Granderson that they started to put up runs and looked primed for a postseason run, but eventually the bottom fell out. Starting with Hiroki Kuroda, who was the "Ace" for most of the season and perhaps one of the best pitchers in baseball, suddenly couldn't keep other teams off the scoreboard and the forty-year old seemed to have tired out by August. CC Sabathia wasn't right the entire season, and perhaps a telling reason, the Yanks finally shut him down for 2013 due to a groin issue. Maybe that was something he was dealing with all season which caused his mediocre performance. A-Rod began experience leg and hamstring issues to the point where he wasn't even able to jog anymore. He too was more or less shutdown by the time late September rolled around. As hot as Soriano gets, he turns equally as cold and his power production tailed off during the final month (a wrist injury didn't help either). The 2013 New York Yankees fought hard for 95% of the season with a stop-gap roster that played over their heads, but towards the end too many players wore down and too many injuries kept cropping up. By the middle of September the team didn't play with any more urgency and everyone just enjoyed the last rides of Mo and Pettitte, which were the only things left to salvage from the lost season.

Position:
85-77 (4th Place American League East - 12 Games behind 1st Place/WS Champion Boston Red Sox)

            Brian Cashman will be entering his toughest off season in recent memory. Basically, he's survived on the Core 3/Core 4 guys with many parts from the 2009 Championship team and has been fiddling with that ever since. Now through retirements and free agency, plus Alex Rodriguez's pending case to appeal his 211-game ban from MLB, Cashman is going to have to give the team quite a makeover.



Retirement: (see you at Old Timer's Day in five years)
-Mariano Rivera
-Andy Pettitte

Manager:
In by far his best managing job in a Yankee uniform (despite not even making the playoffs) Joe Girardi was awarded a brand new four-year deal to stay in the dugout with his binder of baseball statistics.

Key Free Agency:
- Robinson Cano: Biggest name on the FA market and is going to cost top-dollar
- Curtis Granderson: Yanks have already made it known they're gonna let him walk
- Hiroki Kuroda: Cashman has stated he would like him back, but gonna cost about $16 million.
- Lyle Overbay: Was the Yanks unsung hero of 2013, but with Tex due to return there's no room.
- Joba Chamberlain: Don't let the door hit you in the rear......
- Phil Hughes: See Joba
- Kevin Youkilis: Should play for free in 2014 for Yanks after stealing $12 million last year



Starting Pitching:
           This was a strength for the Yankees for most of the season before Kuroda and Pettitte fizzled out, but Pettitte is gone and although its likely the Yanks resign Kuroda for another year, they can't rely on a forty-year like they did last season. CC Sabathia has to take this offseason to figure out whatever he needs to figure out in terms of having consistent success as a 92 MPH pitcher. He's getting paid too much to be a .500 pitcher. Ivan Nova has probably the best raw stuff on the staff, but he needs to grow out of his diapers and pitch well for more than half-a-season - which has been his challenge the past two years.



            Michael Pineda, like Nova, is another young gun with great raw ability and is coming back from Tommy John surgery. He is sure to be on an innings limit, but 2014 is his time to compete for a spot in the rotation this spring training. Cashman forked over Jesus Montero, the Yanks prized farm possession to obtain him, so the value of that trade has to start paying off this upcoming season. Also look for David Phelps, who was impressive with his 2013 opportunities before getting hurt, to also compete for a spot in the rotation. There have been rumors that the Yankees are interested in obtaining Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka, but first they would have to win the bid for him, which could cost nearly $60 million, plus then give him a contract. It's said Tanaka would be the best Japanese pitcher ever to come over, even better than Yu Darvish - who has been impressive, but also the Yanks are looking to cut back on mass spending, so this move seems unlikely at this point. Especially when they need to shell out about $175 million for Cano. Right now the rotation would likely be: Sabathia, Kuroda, Nova, Pineda, and Phelps.

Relief Pitching:
             The loss of Mariano Rivera is incalculable for a variety of reasons, but in terms of Saves alone, losing Mo isn't the end of the world. Just as Rafael Soriano proved in 2012, you can have someone else in for that role and make it to the playoffs. Everyone assumes David Robertson is the natural heir, but his canny ability to walk batters (then strikeout the next three guys) makes him a risky choice. Free Agent Brian Wilson has been taken off the Yanks list for refusing to cut his beard, so Cashman will need to look elsewhere or get creative. Bullpens are generally a year-by-year creature and since being the manager from 2008, Girardi has always made great use of whatever Cashman has tossed his way. There might be some bumpiness in April and May, but Girardi usually gets the bullpens ironed out.



Outfield:
           Curtis Granderson is likely gone due to his feast or famine production. He's a guaranteed 40 homerun player for the Yankees, but he also strikeouts a ton and hits for a low average. The Yankees already have too many other players under contract that are "All or Nothing" hitters as in Teixeira, Soriano, and at their age and declining skills, A-Rod and Ichiro. Cashman had made it known he wants more guys in the lineup who can bring a higher on-base percentage and hit for average. Other than Cano, .300 hitters have been a rarity in the Yankee uniform, and Cashman doesn't want another .250 batter. Plus, Granderson will command a 4-5 year deal at about $15 million per. That's too rich for a Yankee organization looking to trim spending wherever possible. The Yanks are going to bank on Soriano picking up from where he left off when the Yanks traded for him, hoping Gardner keeping improving in center, and at least for now, trying to get something more out of Ichiro than the flat results he produced in 2013. The Yankees might try to bring in a rightfielder with more power ability and relegate Ichiro as the "4th outfielder", but right now its looking Soriano, Gardner, Ichiro.

Infield:
            The biggest concern is going to be over resigning Robinson Cano, who is no-doubt the biggest name available on the market and easily the best second baseman in the league, but he's going to require a mega-contract during a time when the Yanks are looking to be thrifty. It's believed Cano wants deal for about 7-8 years in which the Yanks are more comfortable with 6 years (with front-loading the money to make it more enticing). Cano was the Yanks brightest star in the middle of a rag-tag lineup, and with much uncertainly if Jeter and Tex can come back strong in 2014, and A-Rod's situation a complete unknown, the Yanks may not be able to afford to let Cano slip away.  



             Jeter didn't opt out of his latest contract with the Yankees and both sides agreed to a one-year deal for $12 million. With his nighmarish 2013 season behind him, the Yankee front office expects Jeter to be fully healed and ready to go for 2014. Mark Teixeira didn't get take one regular season swing last season due to his wrist surgery, but he'll be back at first base where he's still going to be a great defender, but hitting 35+ homers and driving in 100+ RBIs might be a asking alot. MLB is trying to nail A-Rod with a 211-game suspension, so they must have strong evidence to make the ban that high when everyone else involved with biogenesis took 50-game pleas. Through a 50-game plea down, or a nagging injury - look for A-Rod to miss about half of 2014, which means Cashman will have to make a similar type of "Youkilis" move for third base on a one-year deal. There was rumors the Yankees might be interested in Brian McCann as a catcher with his 30+ homer ability, but with all these catching gems Cashman raves about in the farm system, it doesn't seem likely the Yankees spend money on that position for a long-term deal. The more likely scenario is a one-year deal for someone who can guarantee good defense, and any offense is a bonus, like a Chris Stewart. Pending any suspensions the Yanks diamond looks like: Rodriguez, Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, and some piece of meat for catcher. Eduardo Nunez will shuffle around third and shortstop to spell Jeter and A-Rod sometimes, or Nunez might be the answer if MLB wins their case against A-Rod.



            The real issue is that through revenue sharing, other teams have done a better job in locking up their star players while they're still in their primes, making the off-season free agency talent pools smaller and smaller. The days where teams would ship their best players to the Yanks in July, or the Yanks would go free agency shopping in winter for Mussina, Giambi, CC, Burnett, and Teixeira are fading away. That's why its imperative, even for a super-rich team, to develop young players through the farm system. The Yanks have had small success stories, but they're locked into too many long-term deals with guys like CC and Tex because they can't develop a David Price on their own. On the flip-side, there's much more pressure for the New York Yankees to put a relevant team on the field each season, versus Tampa Bay, who can tank for five seasons to collect high draft picks and the seventeen people who actually go to Tropicana Field won't even care. So there's always that delicate balance the Yankees and Cashman have to tip-toe around. Less and less fans are showing up to Yankee Stadium or watching the games on YES, and coming off a season in which there were no playoffs, its going to be twice as hard to get fans interested in the 2014 club if they don't resign Cano. If they do let him go elsewhere, they're gonna have to put those funds towards 2-3 big free agent names because the position players aren't ready in the farm system, otherwise they would've been on the scene already. At best its probably a 90-93 win team in 2014 and they'll compete for one of those two Wild Card spots.



             .....nothing right now looks like a champion....

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